A McKinsey & Co. report on coronavirus examines three global economic possibilities.
A quick recovery, which the authors call "least likely," would include contained intracomplex transmission, with economic impacts limited largely to Q1.
The base case is a global slowdown, which would include sustained intracomplex transmission, with a 2020 global slowdown.
The pessimistic case would involve a global pandemic and a 2020 recession as transmission jumps and new complexes develop.